A giant, useless satellite is ready to crash again to Earth someday subsequent week. The European House Company (ESA) satellite was a scientific Earth-monitoring mission referred to as ERS-2. As a result of the company has no technique to management its reentry (what they name a “pure” reentry), the window for when ERS-2 will hit Earth isn’t exact. As we get nearer to reentry, the window narrows, and ESA’s newest prediction is a reentry at 00:24 UTC on Wednesday, February 21, 2024 (or 6:24 p.m. CST, Tuesday, February 20), with an error margin of plus or minus one and a half days. However ESA is often updating this time vary, so check here for the most recent.
Throughout a press convention on February 13, ESA said:
We estimate that the most important fragment of the satellite that would attain the bottom is 115 kilos (52 kg).
Nevertheless it additionally stated:
The chances of a bit of satellite falling on somebody’s head is estimated at one in a billion.
So, when you think about that 71% of Earth’s floor is water, odds are seemingly that the satellite will make an enormous splash someplace.
What’s ERS-2?
ERS-2 is ESA’s second European Distant Sensing satellite. Launched on April 21, 1995, the satellite had a 16-year profession observing Earth till ESA retired it in 2011. In July and August of that 12 months, the space company directed the satellite in 66 maneuvers to help with deorbit. The maneuvers used up the satellite’s gas as a way to lower its orbit and reduce its probability of hitting operational satellites. Reducing the satellite’s orbit additionally ensured that the satellite would reenter throughout the subsequent 15 years, as an alternative of 100 to 200 years. By September 2011, all of the gas from ERS-2 drained. So now the spacecraft is inoperable.
Over the satellite’s lifetime, ERS-2 collected information on polar ice, altering land surfaces, sea-level rise, warming oceans and atmospheric chemistry. It was additionally pressed into service throughout pure disasters in distant areas. ESA said ERS-2:
… returned a wealth of knowledge that revolutionized our perspective of our planet and understanding of local weather change. In addition to leaving a exceptional legacy of knowledge that also proceed to advance science, this excellent mission set the stage for a lot of of right this moment’s satellites and ESA’s place on the forefront of Earth commentary.
Reentry of a useless satellite
ERS-2 weighs roughly 5,057 kilos (2294 kg). ESA said that:
On common, an object of comparable mass reenters Earth’s ambiance each week or two.
The space company stated that the satellite will start to interrupt up when it reaches about 50 miles (80 km) above the bottom. A lot of the fragments will fritter away utterly in Earth’s ambiance. However some items may attain Earth’s floor. The chance to people is minute. In keeping with ESA:
The annual danger of a person human being injured by space particles is below 1 in 100 billion.
And what does the burning spacecraft do to our ambiance? Whereas ESA stated:
… the short-term influence on the ambiance because of the fritter away of a single spacecraft is modest.
However, as ESA stated, an object this measurement reenters each week or two. And in October 2023, a workforce of scientists released a research that stated:
… about 10% of the aerosol particles within the stratosphere comprise aluminum and different metals that originated from the “burn-up” of satellites and rocket phases throughout reentry. Though direct well being or environmental impacts at floor degree are unlikely, these measurements have broad implications for the stratosphere and better altitudes. With many extra launches deliberate within the coming a long time, metals from spacecraft reentry may induce adjustments within the stratospheric aerosol layer.
In the meantime, stand by for extra updates on the reentry of ERS-2.
Backside line: ESA’s satellite ERS-2 ought to crash into Earth between February 19 and 23, 2024. The useless satellite is on an uncontrolled, or “pure”, reentry.
