Over the past six years, governments proposed launching more than 1 million satellites, but where will they all go?

In September 2021, Rwanda introduced that it was planning to launch over 300,000 satellites. Three months later, a Canadian firm, having beforehand launched two dozen CubeSats, said it would launch an additional 100,000. Then, a French company did likewise. And SpaceX, which has already launched around 5,000 satellites, now has plans for over 60,000 more.

There are at the moment solely about 8,000 active satellites in orbit. What is going on on?

Earlier than a satellite is launched, a nation state should file its proposed satellite system with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to coordinate radiofrequency spectrum on behalf of the satellite operator, which could possibly be an organization, college or government agency.

These filings are made years forward of the satellite launch, so the ITU can oversee coordination between completely different satellite operators and be certain that new satellite alerts do not drown present ones out.

A million filings

In a new Policy Forum article published in Science, we discovered that, between 2017 and 2022, nations collectively made filings for over a million satellites throughout greater than 300 separate methods of a number of satellites working collectively, often known as constellations.

This creates two intertwined issues. Both many of those satellites will really be launched, causing an environmental crisis by means of 1000’s of rocket launches into increasingly crowded Earth orbits, or operators are submitting for extra satellites than they intend to launch, maybe with a view to hedging their bets, getting investor consideration or promoting the parts of radio spectrum for revenue.

A more in-depth look exhibits that the latter choice is extra probably.

Congested orbits

If even 10 p.c of the filed-for satellites launch, low Earth orbit would change into congested with over 100,000 further satellites. Collisions between satellites would generate space particles, which might in flip trigger additional collisions.

Reentering satellites would dissipate within the ambiance, potentially affecting the climate, whereas surviving items of particles would possibly strike individuals or plane. We already face these dangers in the present day, however they’d improve by an order of magnitude.

The issue could also be extra mundane, which means that satellite operators are fiddling the numbers. Take E-Area, the French firm. It’s behind both the 337,320-satellite constellation filed by means of Rwanda in 2021, and a 116,640-satellite constellation filed through France in 2023.

Regardless of these formidable filings, the corporate’s CEO, Greg Wyler, stated it’s planning for “at least 30,000 satellites,” whereas its director of product improvement talked about “just a few thousand satellites.” Are any of those numbers actual?

International locations of comfort

There are extra indicators that corporations try to sport the ITU system.

OneWeb, which has 634 satellites in orbit, has made filings for six,118 extra satellites by means of three nations: Mexico, France and the United Kingdom.

SpaceX has made filings by means of the United States, Norway, Germany and now Tonga. It’s unclear why that is taking place, however all these states have completely different administrative guidelines—and fees—related to satellite filings.

Within the world delivery trade, flag-of-convenience governments register ships for corporations that search decrease working prices by means of looser laws and lax enforcement. Over 44 percent of the world’s ships by tonnage are registered in simply three nations: Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands. These ships traditionally have worse safety records and poorer labor conditions.

Tonga, now residence to SpaceX’s October 2023 filing for 29,998 satellites, has filed for satellites earlier than. Within the Nineteen Eighties, it filed for 16 satellite slots, finally gaining 9 slots which it promptly leased to overseas operators.

Different satellite operators weren’t glad; one even moved a satellite into one of Tonga’s slots in protest. But Tonga made thousands and thousands of {dollars} by means of the leases.

Updating the principles

The current megaconstellation filings are of unprecedented measurement, elevating a number of challenges. The ITU goals to stop interference between satellites by modeling their sign energy output, and the proliferation of satellites and the splitting of filings between completely different states are making that troublesome.

The ITU—which is a United Nations company that predates the UN, making it the oldest company within the group—has well-established processes for updating its guidelines. The 193 member states meet each three to 4 years at World Radiocommunication Conferences, the place new guidelines are debated and adopted.

In 2019, member states agreed to create “milestones” for the deployment of satellite constellations: launch 10 p.c of satellites inside two years of the primary launch, 50 p.c inside 5 years and the entire constellation inside seven years. Nevertheless, the primary satellite might be launched as much as seven years after the submitting, giving corporations appreciable time and adaptability.

The ITU ought to take into account rushing up this course of. It might additionally introduce charges that disincentivise giant or speculative filings.

Environmental duty

The Secretary Normal of the ITU, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, has stated the ITU is increasingly prioritizing space sustainability. But it surely should steadiness that aim with its mandate, which focuses on radio spectrum administration.

From Nov. 20 to Dec. 15, 2023, the ITU member states will convene in Dubai for this 12 months’s World Radiocommunication Convention. However do not count on radical modifications this 12 months; any proposals launched now are unlikely to be finalized earlier than the following convention in 2027.

And who is aware of what SpaceX, E-Area and different corporations will stand up to earlier than then?

This text is republished from The Conversation underneath a Artistic Commons license. Learn the original article.